Low pressure in the Caribbean has a 50% chance of development

November 12th, 10 a.m.

We're continuing to monitor an area in the western Caribbean that now has a 50% chance of development. This broad low pressure system will drift northeast, and stay well away from the United States.

November 7th, 7 a.m.

As we enter the last few weeks of the official hurricane season, there is no tropical development expected in either the Atlantic or eastern Pacific basin for the next week.

November 6th, 7 a.m.

The Atlantic Basin remains quiet, with no named storms nor any storms expected to develop over the next 7 days.

In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Pilar is over open waters and will weaken in the coming days as it moves north and encounters cooler sea surface temperatures.

November 5th, 10 a.m.

The Atlantic Basin remains quiet, with no named storms nor any storms expected to develop over the next 7 days, which leaves us with no tropical worries.

In the Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Pilar is over open waters and will weaken in the coming days as it moves north and encounters cooler sea surface temperatures.

November 4th, 7 a.m.

As hurricane season winds down, the activity is finally starting to dwindle. In the Atlantic basic there are no named storms, with just one area of potential development over the next 7 days. We're keeping our eye on a disorganized thunderstorm complex in the far western Caribbean with a 20% chance of development, but there's no threat to Texas regardless.

November 3rd, 7 a.m.

We're monitoring an area of potential development in the western Caribbean. Right now the NHC has a 20% chance of development over the next 2 days, with a weak low pressure system likely drifting farther west into Central America.

There are no other named systems nor potential systems in the Atlantic Basin over the next 7 days, and the Gulf of Mexico remains quiet.

November 2nd, 7 a.m.

We're keeping tabs on an area of potential development in the western Caribbean. Right now the NHC has a 20% chance of development over the next 2 days, with a weak low pressure system likely drifting farther west into Central America.

There are no other named systems nor potential systems in the Atlantic Basin over the next 7 days, and the Gulf of Mexico remains quiet.

November 1st, 7 a.m.

There are currently no active systems in the Atlantic basin, but there is a moderate risk for development in the Caribbean over the next 7 days. If this system gets a name it would be Vince.

In the eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Pilar is intensifying and slowly moving northeastward toward Guatemala and El Salvador. Pilar may become a hurricane as it approaches Central America today or tonight, then will turn north and west, moving move away from land.

October 31th, 7 a.m.

There are currently no active systems in the Atlantic basin, but there is a high risk for development in the Caribbean over the next 7 days. If this system gets a name it would be Vince.

In the eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Pilar is intensifying and slowly moving northeastward toward Guatemala and El Salvador. Pilar may become a hurricane as it approaches Central America today or tonight, then will turn north and west, moving move away from land.

October 30th, 7 a.m.

A developing area of low pressure east of the Bahamas has a low (20%) chance for tropical development. There's another cluster of storms in the southwestern Caribbean with a 50% chance of development. The good news for Texas is that our cold front will push all this moisture well east of us, and keep us from seeing any tropical impacts.

In the Pacific, Tropical Storm Pilar is located off the coast near Central America and nearly stationary. The storm will make a close approach to El Salvador, western Honduras and Nicaragua Tuesday, bringing high winds along the coasts and heavy rain into the region which can produce flash flooding and mudslides.

October 29th, 10 a.m.

A developing area of low pressure east of Bermuda is up to 70% odds of becoming our next tropical depression or named storm. There's another cluster of storms in the southwestern Caribbean with a 20% chance of development, as well as the remnants of Tropical Storm Tammy. The good news for Texas is that our cold front will push all this moisture well east of us, and keep us from seeing any tropical impacts.

October 28th, 10 a.m.

Tropical Storm Tammy continues to meander east away from Bermuda in the Atlantic, but will gradually weaken over the next few days. A disorganized low pressure system in the western Caribbean will drift north towards Jamaica, but development odds are just at 20% over the next 7 days, and it's unlikely to become anything significant.

There are also two areas of potential development in the eastern Pacific, though neither will impact our weather here in southeast Texas.

October 27th, 7 a.m.

Remnants from Tammy will continue to slowly meander east of Bermuda. Tammy could regain tropical characteristics once again as it heads back east in the open Atlantic later this weekend or next week. We are monitoring a new area near the Bahamas or northeastern Caribbean for possible development later this weekend into the first part of next week. While this could bring some impacts to the Caribbean, any development is likely to be swept out to sea before making any U.S. approach as a strong cold front moves off the East Coast.

There are two areas of potential development in the Eastern Pacific. One is a low chance well out to sea with no potential threat to land. The other has a high chance for development near the Central America Coast and heading northward again toward the southern coast of Mexico.

October 26th, 7 a.m.

Tammy has weakened and become post-tropical, but it is still producing hurricane-force winds and heavy rains across Bermuda. Eventually, Tammy may become absorbed into another non-tropical storm, likely by early next week.

In the eastern Pacific, remnants from Otis will be pushing into southeast Texas bringing periods of heavy rain and storms to the region. We are also monitoring a low west of Central America that is likely to become a tropical depression or storm by this weekend. The next name on the list is Pilar.

October 25th, 7 a.m.

Tammy has strengthened to a category 2 hurricane and is currently moving north through the Atlantic. This system can bring an inch or two of rain to Bermuda this weekend, along with gusty winds; otherwise, the storm will meander northward through the end of the month while slowly weakening.

On the Pacific side, Otis made landfall near Acapulco early Wednesday morning as a category 5 hurricane with winds of 165 mph. We could see remnants from Otis move into southeast Texas by the end of the work week.

October 24th, 7 a.m.

We continue to monitor two areas in the Atlantic. Category 1 hurricane Tammy is currently moving north through the Atlantic but could impact Bermuda by the end of the week. We also have Tropical Depression Twenty-One that has formed just east of Central America. It is expected to move west into Nicaragua within the next two days.

On the Pacific side we have Tropical Storm Otis. The storm is expected to turn to the northwest and near the Mexican coast during the middle of this week, with an expected landfall in southwestern Mexico Wednesday. We could see more tropical moisture move into southeast Texas by the end of the work week.

October 23rd, 4:30 a.m.

We continue to monitor two areas in the Atlantic. Category 1 hurricane Tammy is currently moving north through the Atlantic but could impact Bermuda by the end of the week. We also have a disturbance that has a medium chance of development that is just east of Central America. It is expected to move west into Nicaragua within the next two days.

On the Pacific side we have Tropical Depression Norma and Tropical Storm Otis. Norma is currently sending moisture into Texas, increasing rain chances for the state... especially in west Texas. We could see more tropical moisture move into southeast Texas by the end of the work week.

October 22nd, 10 a.m.

Hurricane Tammy in the eastern Caribbean is pulling away from the Lesser Antilles and snaking its way farther north. In the western Caribbean we have a disorganized low pressure system that is now up to a 50% chance of development over the next 2 days. Neither of those storms will make it into the Gulf.

Of greater interest to us is a couple of storms in the eastern Pacific, Tropical storm Norma and Tropical Depression 18, which could send a bit of extra moisture our way and help boost rain chances by the end of next week.

October 21st, 10 a.m.

Hurricane season rolls on, and it remains quite active. In the Atlantic Basin, we're monitoring Hurricane Tammy in the Eastern Caribbean, which will bring impacts to the Lesser Antilles before lifting north and staying well east of the United States.

In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Norma is making landfall in Baja California. The moisture from that system and another developing system in the Eastern Pacific will gradually cross over Mexico and bring an increased chance for rain into Southeast Texas as we move through next week, though we currently do not have a single day with greater than a 50% chance for rain.

October 19th, 7 a.m.

Tropical Storm Tammy is expected to strengthen as it approaches the Leeward Islands. Tammy is expected to bring tropical storm-force winds and heavy rain to the eastern Caribbean beginning later today. The current storm track has the system shifting north soon after, though and back out to sea next week.

Over in the eastern Pacific, we are monitoring two systems. A hurricane named Norma and a system just east of Norma are likely to bring rains to Texas next week.

October 19th, 7 a.m.

Tropical Storm Tammy is expected to strengthen as it approaches the Leeward Islands. Tammy could bring tropical storm force winds and heavy rain to the eastern Caribbean later this week. The current storm track has the system shifting north soon after though and back out to sea next week.

Over in the eastern Pacific, Norma has strengthened to a major hurricane with winds of 120 mph. This is the system to watch as after it makes landfall, tropical moisture could head our way next week.

October 18th, 5 p.m.

New in the Atlantic, the previous area of development just east of the Lesser Antilles has become Tammy. Tammy is now a tropical storm with winds of 40 mph and a central pressure of 1007 mb. Tammy could bring tropical storm force winds and heavy rain to the eastern Caribbean later this week. The current storm track has the system shifting north soon after though and back out to sea next week.

Over in the eastern Pacific, Norma has strengthened to a category 1 hurricane with winds of 80 mph. The hurricane will likely strengthen as it slowly moved north later this week. This is the system to watch as after it makes landfall, tropical moisture could head our way next week.

October 18th, 7 a.m.

We continue to monitor a low about 1000 miles east of the Leeward Islands. This has a high chance to develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm over the next day or so. This system may bring rounds of gusty winds and heavy rain to the islands. The next name on the list is Tammy.

In the eastern Pacific. Tropical Storm Norma is several hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico and will move northwest this week while strengthening. Moisture from this system could eventually get pulled into Southeast Texas next week helping with our rain chances.

October 17th, 7 a.m.

We are continuing to keep an eye on a broad area of low pressure in the Atlantic. This low has a high chance of development over the next 7 days. The next name in the Atlantic is Tammy.

In the eastern Pacific, we are watching two areas of potential development. One area of low pressure southwest of Mexico is expected to develop into a depression or storm in the next two days. Moisture from this system could eventually get pulled into Southeast Texas next week helping with our rain chances.

October 16th, 7 a.m.

Sean has dissipated. We continue to monitor a low moving through the central Atlantic at this time. This system has a high likelihood to become a named tropical system during the middle to later part of this week. The next name in the Atlantic is Tammy.

In the eastern Pacific, there are no named entities at this time, but two areas of concern. We have a high chance to see development south of southern Mexico over the next few days, and a medium shot at development west of Central America late this week or this weekend. None of which are a threat to the Gulf at this time.

October 15th, 10 a.m.

While Tropical Depression Sean is far from impressive and soon to fizzle out, there is another area in the Atlantic which will likely be our next named storm.

Right on Sean's heels in the open Atlantic is a tropical wave with a 90% chance of development over the next 7 days. This storm will likely become Tammy soon, leaving us with just "Vince" and "Whitney" left on our 2023 Hurricane Name List before we have to switch over the to supplemental name list and start again at "A" with "Adria".

The Gulf still remains quiet, as no storms are expected over the next 7 days.

October 14th, 10 a.m.

Sean has weakened into a Tropical Depression, and will quickly fizzle out.

Another tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic has an 80% chance of development. Waters in the Caribbean are still warm enough to fuel storms, but we've entered the time of year in Houston where cold fronts tend to direct any potential storms well away from southeast Texas.

October 13th, 7 a.m.

Tropical Storm Sean remains poorly organized over the central Atlantic. The storm is expected to weaken become a tropical depression. Sean will remain well away from land through this weekend; however, some impacts cannot be ruled out in the Leeward Islands toward the middle of next week.

Elsewhere, a tropical wave south of the Cabo Verde Islands has a medium chance to develop further as it heads generally westward across the eastern Atlantic. The eastern Pacific is generally quiet, with a low chance of tropical

development southwest of southern Mexico early to mid next week.

October 12th, 7 a.m.

Tropical Depression Sean remains disorganized, and is unlikely to get much stronger in the coming days. The storm should remain well away from land through this weekend, though some impacts are possible in the Leeward Islands toward the middle of next week. We are also keeping an eye on an area of low pressure several hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands; this has a low chance to develop over the next week or two.

The eastern Pacific is quiet in the wake of Lidia and Max; there is a low chance for an area of low pressure to develop southwest of southern Mexico during the early to middle part of next week.

October 11th, 7 a.m.

Lidia made landfall as a category 4 hurricane Tuesday near Las Penitas, Mexico and will continue to weaken as it tracks across western Mexico. Moisture from Lidia will bring widespread light showers to southeast Texas Wednesday morning before tapering off during the afternoon.

Elsewhere, Sean has formed in the eastern Atlantic, and is not likely to strengthen much. This storm should remain well away from land in the coming days. Another wave fresh off of Africa has a low development chance as it tracks generally west over the next week or so.

October 10th, 7 a.m.

The Atlantic basin does not have any named systems at this time, but there is an area worth monitoring over the far eastern Atlantic. This system has a high chance for tropical development and could become a tropical depression or storm over the next few days. We also continue to monitor an area of disturbed weather over the Bay of Campeche. This system will drift into the central Gulf of Mexico over the next few days, and could bring heavy rain and thunderstorms mainly to south Texas and the eastern Gulf Coast states. If this low tracks farther north however, it could mean heavy rain for southern portions of our area as well.

Meanwhile, two tropical systems in the eastern Pacific will bring tropical moisture to the Gulf this week. Depending on the strength of the moisture when it reaches the Gulf and it's position, southeast Texas could pick up some showers Tuesday and Wednesday. The best chance for that will be closer to the coast.

October 9th, 7 a.m.

The Atlantic basin does not have any named systems at this time, but there is an area worth monitoring over the far eastern Atlantic. This system has a high chance for tropical development and could become a tropical depression or storm over the next few days. We also continue to monitor an area of disturbed weather over the Bay of Campeche. This system will drift into the central Gulf of Mexico over the next few days, and could bring heavy rain and thunderstorms mainly to south Texas and the eastern Gulf Coast states. If this low tracks farther north however, it could mean heavy rain for southern portions of the viewing area as well as along the coast.

Meanwhile, two tropical systems in the eastern Pacific could bring tropical moisture to the Gulf midweek this week. Depending on the strength of the moisture when it reaches the Gulf and it's position, southeast Texas could pick up some showers Tuesday and Wednesday. The best chance for that will be closer to the coast.

October 8th, 7 p.m.

In the Atlantic, the gulf of Mexico remains quiet while a wave off the west coast of Africa has a 40% chance of developing by Tuesday, 80% over the next 7 days.

Meanwhile, two tropical systems in the eastern Pacific could bring tropical moisture to the gulf midweek this week. Depending on the strength of the moisture when it reaches the gulf and it's position, southeast Texas could pick up some showers Tuesday and Wednesday. Best chance for that will be closer to the coast.

October 8th, 10 a.m.

While the Gulf of Mexico remains quiet, we're watching to storms in the Eastern Pacific, Lidia and TD 16, as they bring some moisture across Mexico and help to build in rain chances next week. These storms won't survive the trek across Mexico, so I'm not worried about a tropical system developing, but the influx in moisture could bring rain to parts of Southeast Texas by late Tuesday.

October 7th, 10 a.m.

The remnants of Philippe is bringing stormy conditions to New England and Nova Scotia, but will have no impact on our weather.

More notably locally are a couple of storms in the eastern pacific, the moisture from those storms could end up pushing into the Gulf of Mexico, and increase our rain chances for next week. Still, no named systems are expected in the Gulf, just an increased chances for rain.

October 6th, 7 a.m.

Tropical Storm Philippe is heading northward toward Bermuda. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda today as Tropical Storm Philippe heads north. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches could result in flash flooding. On the forecast track, the center of Philippe will pass near Bermuda later today, and then reach the coast of Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, or eastern Maine Saturday night into Sunday.

At this time, no tropical development is expected in the Gulf in the next seven days, and we're nearing the latest date on record a hurricane has made landfall in Texas, which is October 15. Based on the projected steering currents over the Gulf and the resulting high wind shear, we are likely in the clear from any direct hits. That said, we're entering the time of year when we have to pay closer attention to what's happening in the Pacific since those storms can recurve into Mexico and send heavy rains to Texas. That very well may happen next week as two tropical systems in the Pacific get scooped up by the jet stream.

October 5th, 7 a.m.

Tropical Storm Philippe continues to move away from the northern Leeward Islands, heading northward toward Bermuda where there will be rain and wind mainly as it passes nearby. After passing Bermuda, the

storm is expected to accelerate northward and can bring wind and rain impacts to Atlantic Canada and parts of New England this weekend.

At this time, no tropical development is expected in the Gulf in the next seven days, and we're nearing the latest date on record a hurricane has made landfall in Texas, which is October 15. Based on the projected steering currents over the Gulf and the resulting high wind shear, we are likely in the clear from any direct hits. That said, we're entering the time of year when we have to pay closer attention to what's happening in the Pacific since those storms can recurve into Mexico and send heavy rains to Texas.

October 4th, 7 a.m.

Tropical Storm Phillipe continues to bring heavy rains and flash flooding to portions of the northern Windward Islands and the Leeward Islands. On the forecast track, Philippe will then approach Bermuda Thursday night and Friday.

At this time, no tropical development is expected in the Gulf in the next seven days, and we're nearing the latest date on record a hurricane has made landfall in Texas, which is October 15. Based on the projected steering currents over the Gulf and the resulting high wind shear, we are likely in the clear from any direct hits. That said, we're entering the time of year when we have to pay closer attention to what's happening in the Pacific since those storms can recurve into Mexico and send heavy rains to Texas.

October 3rd, 7 a.m.

Tropical Storm Phillipe continues to bring heavy rains and flash flooding to portions of the northern Windward Islands and the Leeward Islands. On the forecast track, the center of Philippe is expected to move north of the Leeward Islands on Wednesday.

The Gulf of Mexico remains quiet, with no active storms, and no storms expected over the next 7 days.

October 2nd, 7 a.m.

Tropical Storm Phillipe is moving slowly northwestward and will impact the northeast Caribbean through Tuesday. Additionally, Rina is now a tropical rainstorm in the open central Atlantic. The storm is expected to weaken and become ingested into a non-tropical low pressure advancing across the North Atlantic. There will be no impacts to land from Rina.

The Gulf of Mexico remains quiet, with no active storms, and no storms expected over the next 7 days.

October 1st, 6 p.m.

Rina has weakened to a tropical depression and will continue to fizzle out this week. As for Philippe, this tropical storm is slowly approach the Leeward Islands where Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Antigua and Barbuda. Thankfully though, this system is not expected to enter the Caribbean as it will take a northerly jog this week back into the middle of the Atlantic. Philippe could intensity to a category 1 hurricane though later this week.

The Gulf of Mexico remains quiet, with no active storms, and no storms expected over the next 7 days.

October 1st, 10 a.m.

We have two named storms in the Atlantic, Rina and Philippe, but neither pose any risk to the United States. The Gulf of Mexico remains quiet, with no named storms and no storms expected over the next 7 days.

September 30th, 7 p.m.

On this the last update for the month of September, an extremely active month where six named storms developed, the tropics are still active with tropical storms Rina and Philippe swirling in the Atlantic. Good news is both systems will follow a similar path as many did previously this month and stay in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean. neither pose a threat to making landfall in the U.S.

Additionally, the Gulf of Mexico remains quiet, with no active storms, and no storms expected over the next 7 days.

September 30th, 10 a.m.

We're still watching two storms in the Atlantic Basin, Rina and Philippe, both tropical storms which will stay clear of the US. The Gulf of Mexico remains quiet, with no active storms, and no storms expected over the next 7 days.

September 29th, 7 a.m.

Two named storms in the central Atlantic basin at this time. Tropical Storm Phillipe is moving slowly westward toward the northeast Caribbean, and is expected to weaken as it passes by just to the north of the Leeward Islands this weekend.

Additionally, Tropical Storm Rina in the central Atlantic is expected to track generally to the northwest over the next few days, then curve more northward early next week. Rina should remain well away from land.

September 28th, 7 a.m.

Tropical Storm Philippe expected to weaken as it makes a turn to the west in the next day or two as it nears the Leeward Islands. The storm is expected to pass just north of the islands this weekend. This could bring downpours to the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico through the start of next week. Most places are expected to get an inch or two of rain.

Southeast of Philippe, the low pressure area tracking across the Atlantic has a 90% chance for tropical development over the next 48 hours. If it does strengthen to a tropical storm, it will be named Rina.

September 27th, 7 a.m.

Tropical Storm Philippe continues to move west towards the northern Caribbean. It should weaken to a depression as it moves closer to Puerto Rico. There is also another area near the coast of Africa that has a high chance of development in the next 7 days.

September 26th, 7 a.m.

Tropical Storm Philippe continues to move west towards the northern Caribbean. It should weaken to a depression as it moves closer to Puerto Rico. There is also another area near the coast of Africa that has a high chance of development in the next 7 days.

September 25th, 7 a.m.

Tropical Storm Philippe is expected to hold steady in intensity as it tracks west and then northwest this week. This track should keep it away from the northern Lesser Antilles and then east of Bermuda over the weekend.

In the far eastern Atlantic, a tropical wave that just moved off the coast of Africa has a 80% chance of developing over the next 7 days, potentially becoming Rina. In the Gulf of Mexico, there is a new area to watch but Houstonians shouldn't be too concerned. A disorganized area of showers and storms off the west coast of Cuba will slowly traverse the Gulf to the west over the next 7 days. It's possible those storms could organize as develop into a tropical depression and move due west into Mexico, staying south of Houston and the United States.

September 24th, 8 p.m.

Tropical Storm Philippe will continue to track west across the Atlantic over the next couple of days before turning north midweek. The system is forecast to stay at tropical storm strength over the next 7 days. Part of the reason why is it's running into some cooler pockets across the Atlantic churned up by previous tropical systems. And a wave that just moved off the coast of Africa now has a 70% chance of developing over the next 7 days, potentially becoming Rina.

In the Gulf of Mexico, there is a new area to watch but Houstonians shouldn't be too concerned. A disorganized area of showers and storms off the west coast of Cuba will slowly traverse the Gulf to the west over the next 7 days. It's possible those storms could organize as develop into a tropical depression and move due west into Mexico, staying south of Houston and the United States.

September 24th, 10 a.m.

What was formerly Tropical Storm Ophelia is now just the remnants of Ophelia, but is still bringing rain and wind through the northeast and mid-Atlantic today.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic ocean, Tropical Storm Philippe is likely to stay clear of the US, as is a developing tropical wave behind Philippe.

The Gulf of Mexico remains quiet for the next 7 days.

September 23nd, 7 p.m.

Ophelia has weakened to a tropical depression but will still bring heavy rain across the mid-Atlantic through the weekend. Meanwhile, TD17 become Philippe Saturday evening as a tropical storm with winds of 40 mph. this storm will continue to track west before making a turn north early next week before reaching the Caribbean.

The Gulf of Mexico remains quiet for the next 7 days.

September 23nd, 10 a.m.

Tropical Storm Ophelia made landfall near Emerald Isle, NC early this morning, bringing sustained winds of 70mph, just a 4mph short of hurricane strength. Ophelia will continue to bring winds and rain to the Mid-Atlantic throughout the weekend.

The tropical wave we've been monitoring in the eastern Atlantic has now become Tropical Depression Seventeen. All indications are that TD17 will become our next named system, Philippe, and curve north before reaching the United States.

The Gulf of Mexico remains quiet for the next 7 days.

September 22nd, 10 a.m.

Potential Storm Sixteen is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm over the next 24 hours as it moves towards the Carolina coast. The system will bring soaking rain to the 95-corridor through the weekend, impacting major cities like D.C., Philadelphia, New York City, and Boston.

Another wave in the open Atlantic now has a 90% chance of development, though there are no signs that it will move into the Gulf. The Gulf of Mexico remains quiet over the next 7 days.

September 21st, 11 a.m.

Potential Storm Sixteen has formed off the southeast coast of the U.S. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph. This system is expected to strengthen during the next day or two, and is forecast to become a tropical storm as it approaches the coast of North Carolina. Regardless of whether the system becomes a tropical storm, the system is expected to bring tropical-storm conditions to portions of the southeast and mid-Atlantic coast.

September 21st, 7 a.m.

Nigel will continue to weaken during the next couple of days, and is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone by Friday

There are two areas to watch aside from Nigel. A tropical wave over the far eastern Atlantic has a high risk for development this weekend as it travels westward. There is also a medium risk for development off of the Southeast U.S. coast. This system could acquire some subtropical characteristics by this weekend while it moves generally northward. Regardless of development, this system is likely to bring gusty winds, heavy rain, and high surf to parts of the Southeast U.S. late this week and into the weekend.

September 20th, 7 a.m.

Nigel has strengthened to a category 2 hurricane over the central Atlantic. Swells generated by Nigel are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions for Bermuda over the next couple of days. Nigel is expected to slightly weaken in the short term, followed by steady weakening over the weekend.

There are two areas to watch aside from Nigel. A tropical wave over the far eastern Atlantic has a high risk for development later this week as it travels westward. There is also a low risk for development off of the Southeast U.S. coast. This system could acquire some subtropical characteristics by this weekend while it moves generally northward. Regardless of development, this system is likely to bring gusty winds, heavy rain, and high surf to parts of the Southeast U.S. late this week and into this weekend.

September 19th, 7 a.m.

Nigel continues to intensify in the central Atlantic, while turning northward Wednesday, and then accelerating northeastward through the rest of the week. Swells generated by Nigel are expected to reach Bermuda on Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

There are two areas to watch aside from Nigel. A tropical wave over the far eastern Atlantic has a high risk for development later this week as it travels westward. There is also a low risk for development off of the Southeast U.S. coast. This system could acquire some subtropical characteristics this weekend if it remains offshore while it moves slowly northward or northwestward.

September 18th, 7 a.m.

Nigel becomes a hurricane in the central Atlantic basin and expected to rapidly intensify into a major hurricane on Tuesday. Nigel is then forecast to turn northward late Tuesday, and then accelerate northeastward through the rest of the week.

There are two areas to watch aside from Nigel. A tropical wave over the far eastern Atlantic has a high risk for development later this week as it travels westward. There is also a low risk for development off of the Southeast U.S.

coast. This system could acquire some subtropical characteristics this weekend if it remains offshore while it moves slowly northward or northwestward.

September 17th, 10 p.m.

Tropical Storm Nigel is still on track to become a hurricane Monday. New in this update is an area to watch off the east coast near Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas. Non-tropical areas of low pressure will move through the Southeast this week, which is normal for this time of year. But depending on their track and intensity, energy from those systems could translate into something tropical, developing off the east coast near Georgia later this week. The chance for that is still low, only 20% over the next 7 days.

September 17th, 5 p.m.

While Lee and Margot will continue to weaken, Tropical Storm Nigel is expected to strengthen this week. Currently Nigel is a tropical storm with 65 mph winds and is forecast to become a hurricane Monday. By Tuesday, Nigel could become a major hurricane as it swings to the east of Bermuda. And with that, Nigel is going to stay far away in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean and should not be an impacted to the US.

Further south in the deep tropics, a tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa has a 40% chance of developing over the next 7 days. The gulf remains quiet.

September 17th, 10 a.m.

As expected in Mid-September, the Atlantic Basin is very active. Three named storms; Lee, Margot, and Nigel will all be a non-issue for us.

Another tropical wave rolling off Africa has a 40% chance of development over the next 7 days, we'll monitor it, but it's far from an immediate concern. The Gulf of Mexico remains quiet, with no named storms or expected development over the next 7 days.

September 16th, 10 p.m.

Tropical Storm Nigel has arrived, forming in the Atlantic Saturday night with winds of 50 mph. Nigel could become a hurricane as early as Monday morning as it tracks northwest. This storm is expected to stay far from the coast and even east of Bermuda in the middle of the ocean.

September 16th, 6 p.m.

Lee has become a post-tropical system as it moves off into Canada Saturday evening. Heavy rain and tropical storm force winds will continue to impact New Brunswick and Nova Scotia through Sunday though. Farther in the Atlantic, Margot remains a tropical storm and is nearly stationary Saturday evening. This storm will continue to swirl in circles into next week, eventually weakening to a Tropical Depression by mid-week.

Tropical Depression 15 though could become named storm Nigel as early as Sunday. This system is expected to stay east of Bermuda and in the middle of the Atlantic too but could become a hurricane Monday.

September 16th, 10 a.m.

Lee is now "post-tropical", but is still capable of producing hurricane-force winds as it moves towards Nova Scotia. While the impact of that storm will be felt in parts of New England and Canada, it will have no impact on our weather here.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic we have Tropical Storm Margot and Tropical Depression 15 (which will be our next named storm, "Nigel"). Neither of these storms will reach the Gulf of Mexico.

In the Gulf of Mexico there are no expected storms over the next 7 days.

September 15th, 1 p.m.

Lee remains a hurricane as it moves north into New England and Canada, though it will weaken as it moves north over cold waters. Tropical Storm Warnings are up through parts of the northeast.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic Tropical Depression 15 formed, this storm will soon be our next named storm ("Nigel"), but is no threat to the Gulf of Mexico.

September 14th, 7 a.m.

Hurricane Lee now a category 2 hurricane. The storm is expected to pass close to eastern New England before moving into parts of Canada. Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches are now in effect for these areas.

Meanwhile, Margot is still a hurricane churning in the central Atlantic. This general path is expected to continue most of this week and into the weekend. No impacts are expected on land. Another tropical wave southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has a 90% chance for tropical development. If this system acquires a name, the next name on the storm list is Nigel.

September 13th, 7 a.m.

Hurricane Lee continues as a category 3 hurricane. The storm is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to Bermuda by Thursday morning. By the weekend, the storm is expected to pass close to eastern New England before moving into parts of Canada.

Meanwhile, Margot is still a hurricane churning in the central Atlantic. This general path is expected to continue most of this week and into the weekend. No impacts are expected on land. Another

tropical wave southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has high potential for tropical development during the next 7 days. If this system acquires a name, the next name on the storm list is Nigel.

September 12th, 7 a.m.

Hurricane Lee remains a large and dangerous storm. The storm is expected to strengthen today as it starts to turn more to the northwest, then will take an increasingly north to northeasterly track from mid to late week while losing wind intensity. The storm is expected to pass close to eastern New England before moving into parts of Canada.

Meanwhile, Margot is now a hurricane located in the open Atlantic Basin, moving northward at 12 mph. This general path is expected to continue most of this week and into the weekend. No impacts are expected on land. Another

tropical wave southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has high potential for tropical development during the next 7 days. If this system acquires a name, the next name on the storm list is Nigel.

September 11th, 7 a.m.

Lee has strengthened back to a major hurricane with winds of 120 mph. Margot is still a tropical storm but forecast to become a hurricane later this week. As of now nether will make landfall here in the US, but dangerous rip currents, higher waves and beach erosion are potential impacts the east coast could face from Lee this week.

There are also two waves moving off the west coast of Africa, where one has a 50% chance of developing across the deep tropics over the next 7 days.

September 10th, 6 p.m.

And on the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, Lee has strengthened back to a major hurricane with winds of 120 mph. Margot is still a tropical storm but forecast to become a hurricane later this week. As of now nether will make landfall here in the US, but dangerous rip currents, higher waves and beach erosion are potential impacts the east coast could face from Lee this week.

There are also two waves moving off the west coast of Africa, where one has a 40% chance of developing across the deep tropics over the next 7 days.

September 10th, 7 a.m.

Today is the climatological peak of hurricane season! While Sept 10th is technically the peak, it's best to look at this entire month as the "peak", meaning conditions are will remain favorable for tropical development well beyond today.

Hurricane Lee is expected to again become a major hurricane as it moves northwest, but should hold east of the United States. The primary impacts will be elevated surf, rip currents, and beach erosion.

There are no storms expected in the Gulf over the next 7 days.

September 9th, 7 p.m.

Hurricane Lee is slowly moving northwest Saturday evening as a category 3 hurricane. Lee is forecast to strengthen back to a category 4 storm into next week as the system enters an area with more favorable conditions. The latest still keeps it well east of making landfall in the Caribbean, but Lee is expected to take a northerly turn into late next week, potentially sending it on a crash course with Bermuda. And while it's still too early to tell whether Lee will impact the United States, dangerous rip currents ae expected along the East Coast beginning as early as Sunday evening.

And just to Lee's east, Tropical Storm Margot has developed over the weekend. Margot will stay farther east of Lee and move due north across the center of the Atlantic Ocean. Margot could become a hurricane next week too, which would make for two hurricanes in the Atlantic at the same time. Additionally, there are two waves coming off the coast of Africa to watch for potential development over the next 7 days.

Over in the Pacific, Tropical Storm Jova will likely stay a tropical storm through the weekend before weakening next week.

September 9th, 11 a.m.

Hurricane Lee moved into an area with increased wind shear, but is still a major Category 3 hurricane with winds of 115mph. The primary concern will be from indirect impacts along the east coast, high surf, beach erosion, and rip currents. No storms are expected in the Gulf over the next 7 days.

September 8th, 7 a.m.

Hurricane Lee is a powerful category 5 storm. Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents are expected for the northern Leeward Islands in the eastern Caribbean as the storm passes not far to the northeast of that area this weekend. This system will stay far away from the Gulf of Mexico. Interests in the northern Caribbean, Bermuda, and along the East Coast of the United States should closely monitor Lee's forecast.

Tropical Storm Margot forms and continues to move west, away from the Cabo Verde Islands. Margot is expected to become a hurricane this weekend as it turns more toward the northwest and stays over the Atlantic Basin.

September 7th, 10 p.m.

Lee strengthens into a Category 5 hurricane. Hurricane Hunters found a pressure of 928 millibars and a maximum sustained wind of 160 mph. its winds are forecast to rise to 160 mph on Friday.

September 7th, 7 a.m.

Hurricane Lee continues to rapidly strengthen and is expected to become a major hurricane by Friday. Impacts from this storm are currently expected for the northern Leeward Islands in the eastern Caribbean as the storm passes not far to the northeast of that area this weekend. This system will stay far away from the Gulf of Mexico. Interests in the northern Caribbean, Bermuda, and along the East Coast of the United States should closely monitor Lee's forecast.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic basin, there is a high risk of development of the wave over the far eastern Atlantic, now bringing impacts to the Cabo Verde Islands.

September 6th, 4 p.m.

Lee is now classified as a category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Lee is likely to intensify into a major hurricane by early this weekend as shear decreases and as water temps increase as it moves northwest.

September 6th, 7 a.m.

Tropical Storm Lee is expected to rapidly intensify as a hurricane on Wednesday and become a major hurricane later in the week. Impacts from this storm are currently expected for the northern Leeward Islands in the Caribbean as the storm passes not far to the northeast of that area. This system will stay far away from the Gulf of Mexico. Interests in the northern Caribbean, Bermuda, and along the East Coast of the United States should closely monitor Lee's forecast.

September 5th, 4:30 p.m.

Tropical Storm Lee has formed over the warm Atlantic waters and is predicted to rapidly intensify to a Category 4 hurricane later this week. Thankfully for us, it will stay far away from the Gulf of Mexico. Interests in the northern Caribbean, Bermuda, and along the East Coast of the United States should closely monitor Lee's forecast.

September 5th, 7 a.m.

We continue to monitor two tropical waves in the Atlantic which have the potential for tropical development. The area of disturbed weather closest to the Lesser Antilles has the highest chance for development at 90%. A tropical depression or storm could develop sometime this week. Impacts from this system are expected for the northern Leeward Islands in the Caribbean.

There is also a medium risk off the west coast of Africa later this week as another tropical wave emerges, which could bring impacts to the Cabo Verde Islands.

September 4th, 7 a.m.

Tropical Storms Gert and Tropical Depression Katia are still spinning in the central Atlantic and pose no threat to the US. Most of the attention is on a tropical wave that's tracking west across the deep tropics that has a 60% chance of developing by Wednesday, 90% over the next 7 days. And at that time, it's expected to be close to the eastern Caribbean. We'll note that most long range computer models have this potential storm staying in the Atlantic and not entering the gulf.

September 3rd, 6 p.m.

Tropical Storms Gert and Katia are still spinning in the middle of the Atlantic and pose no threat to the US. Most of the attention then is on a wave that's tracking west across the deep tropics that has a 60% chance of developing by Tuesday, 90% over the next 7 days. And at that time, it's expected to be close to the eastern Caribbean. We'll note that most long range computer models have this potential storm staying in the Atlantic and not entering the gulf.

The Gulf of Mexico is still quiet for the long holiday weekend.

September 3rd, 10 a.m.

The Gulf of Mexico remains quiet, with no tropical development expected over the next 7 days. The Atlantic Basin as a whole is a much different story. We have two named storms, Gert and Katia, but neither pose a threat to the US. Of greatest interest is a tropical wave off the coast of Africa which now has an 80% chance of development over the next week. Global forecast models currently steer that system north before it ever reaches the US, but it's something we'll continue to monitor on the days to come.

September 2nd, 7 p.m.

Tropical storms Katia and Gert continue to swirl in the middle of the Atlantic and pose no threat to the United States. The remnants of Idalia are still over Bermuda, bringing some rainfall to the island Saturday evening.

The gulf will stay quiet over the next 7 days, but a tropical wave off the coast of Africa has a 30% chance of developing by Monday, a better 70% chance over the next 7 days. This will be worth monitoring in the long run, though current models show the system curving north before ever making it to the United States.

September 2nd, 7 a.m.

Tropical Storm Gert and Tropical Storm Katia are keeping the Atlantic Basin busy, but neither storm is headed this way.

Of slightly more interest is a tropical wave coming off Africa with a 70% chance of development over the next 7 days. This will be worth monitoring in the long run, though current models show the system curving north before ever making it to the United States.

September 1st, 7 a.m.

The remnants of Idalia are now spinning off the eastern seaboard in the Atlantic Ocean, joining a crowd of other named storms.

Along with what was formerly Idalia, we also have Hurricane Franklin, Tropical Storm Jose, and Tropical Depression Gert, all relatively close to one another. The good news is that while the Atlantic is extremely active, none of these named storms will have any impact on Texas. There are a couple of other developing tropical waves coming off Africa, but no development is expected in the Gulf in the next 7 days.

August 31, 7 a.m.

Idalia is now a tropical storm as it moves off the coast of the Carolinas. It is expected to track eastward toward Bermuda where that country may suffer impacts of heavy rain and strong winds as the storm passes overhead on Sunday.

Elsewhere in the tropics, Franklin is still a hurricane moving northeast away from Bermuda. It may pass close enough to eastern Canada over the weekend and bring some rain/wind to eastern Newfoundland. Tropical Storm Jose has formed over the central Atlantic. No impacts to land are expected as the small system forecast to be absorbed by Franklin by the weekend

A tropical wave west of the Cape Verde Islands has a high chance to develop over the next couple of days as it tracks generally to the northwest. If this gets a name, it would be Katia.

August 30, 7 a.m.

Idalia makes landfall along the coast of the Florida Big Bend near Keaton Beach as a category 3 hurricane Wednesday morning. Maximum sustained winds were near 125 mph. Idalia will continue to track across southern Georgia as a Category 2 hurricane then to the eastern Carolinas on Thursday. Life-threatening impacts from hurricane conditions are expected along the Florida Gulf Coast. Significant flash flooding can impact portions of Georgia into the Carolinas.

August 29, 7 a.m.

Idalia has strengthened to a hurricane Tuesday morning packing winds of 75 mph. The storm is expected to rapidly intensify as it continues to move over the eastern Gulf of Mexico toward Florida's Gulf coast. Idalia is expected to make landfall as a strong category 3 hurricane (winds over 111 mph) in the Big Bend of Florida Wednesday morning before tracking across southern Georgia to the eastern Carolinas later this week. Life-threatening impacts from hurricane conditions are expected along the Florida Gulf Coast. Significant flash flooding can impact portions of Georgia into the Carolinas.

August 28, 7 a.m.

Tropical Storm Idalia is expected to become a hurricane on Monday as it moves over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Rapid intensification will be possible and Idalia is forecast to make landfall as a category 3 hurricane as it approaches the Gulf coast of Florida between Panama City and Tampa Bay Wednesday morning.

Hurricane Franklin now a category 4 hurricane is the first major hurricane of the Atlantic season. This system is expected to maintain its strength through Tuesday night as it nears Bermuda. The hurricane can lose intensity as it passes north of the island Wednesday and Wednesday night but can still bring gusty winds and heavy rain to the island.

August 27, 5 p.m.

Tropical Depression Ten has now strengthened into Idalia, a tropical storm with winds of 40 mph Sunday evening. Idalia will slowly move north into the gulf Monday. This storm poses no threat to Texas but is expected to make landfall along the Florida gulf coast Wednesday, potentially as a category 2 hurricane. Tropical storm and Hurricane Watches have been issued from the panhandle to the Keys.

Meanwhile in the Atlantic, Franklin has strengthened into a category 2 hurricane Sunday evening and will swing by Bermuda Wednesday.

August 27, 7 a.m.

Tropical Depression Ten has formed in the northwest Caribbean. This tropical depression is forecast to move into the eastern Gulf of Mexico early this week, tracking over very warm waters favorable for further strengthening of the storm. Due to these factors, this system should become a Tropical Storm and be named Idalia. Further strengthening is possible as this system pushes toward the west coast of Florida on Tuesday and potentially makes landfall on Wednesday between Panama City and Tampa Bay.

August 26, 7 p.m.

The area of interest that's just off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula now has the designation of Potential Storm Ten. This system will continue to swirl near Central America this weekend before trekking north into the gulf near Cuba Monday. This storm will stay to our east and could make landfall as a hurricane midweek next week along the gulf coast of Florida.

Otherwise, Franklin tonight is a category one hurricane with winds of 85 mph, and there are two additional areas of interest far in the Atlantic.

August 26, 7 a.m.

We are keeping a close eye on an area of low pressure that's just north of Central America. This low has a high chance of development as it moves north into the Gulf of Mexico. The steering pattern has the system moving north into the eastern Gulf this weekend into early next week.

We also have Tropical Storm Franklin farther out at sea which is heading north towards Bermuda. There are also two other areas of possible development but it looks like they will stay over the ocean as they move north.

August 25, 7 a.m.

We are keeping a close eye on an area of low pressure that's just north of Central America. This low has a high chance of development as it moves north. The steering pattern has the system moving north into the eastern Gulf this weekend into early next week.

We also have Tropical Storm Franklin farther out at sea which is heading north towards Bermuda. There are also two other areas of possible development but it looks like they will stay over the ocean as they move north.

August 24, 7 a.m.

The Atlantic remains active with Tropical Storm Franklin moving away from the Turks and Caicos. It is expected to become a hurricane this weekend, although it is not expected to make any direct impacts to the U.S.

We are also monitoring three areas of tropical development. Two of which have a medium or greater chance of development through this weekend, one being the remnants of Emily near Bermuda with a high chance and another closer to the Cabo Verde islands with a medium chance. Lastly, an area of disturbed weather over Central America will need to be monitored as it moves into the Northwestern Caribbean Sea this weekend. Gradual development will be possible as this system lifts into the Gulf of Mexico early next week. Formation odds at 40 percent over the next 7 days.

August 23, 7 a.m.

Harold has been downgraded to a Tropical Depression and will continue to weaken as it moves over northern Mexico. Harold is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with isolated higher amounts of 4 inches across the Big Bend, Texas. Isolated-to-widely scattered instances of flash flooding are possible.

Tropical Storm Franklin made landfall along the southern coast of the Dominican Republic. Heavy rain and gusty winds are expected to continue through Thursday morning.

August 22, 6:20 p.m.

The moisture from Harold will continue to bring 2-4" of rain to the Big Bend of Texas overnight.

August 22, 9:50 a.m.

Tropical Storm Harold made landfall at about 9:50 a.m. Tuesday on Padre Island, south of Corpus Christi. Heavy rain and wind are expected for the next several hours. A Flash Flood Warning has been issued for Corpus Christi as the storm moves through. The storm is expected to weaken later this afternoon and into the evening as it approaches Rio Grande River, near Laredo. By Wednesday morning, remnants of Harold will bring rain to the southwestern part of Texas, south of Midland.

August 22, 6 a.m.

A Tropical Storm Watch continues for Matagorda County and will remain in effect through Tuesday. This includes towns like Palacios, Matagorda, and Sargent. Wind gusts are expected to stay below tropical storm force strength, between 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Flash flooding is not expected. Storm surge is also not expected. The biggest concern could be the chance for tornadoes as outlying storms move through the county. Localized heavy rainfall could lead to isolated street flooding.

Tropical Storm Harold is currently forecasted to make landfall Tuesday morning between Brownsville and Corpus Christi.

August 21, 4 p.m.

Tropical Depression 9 has formed in the central Gulf of Mexico, and it is still expected to become Tropical Storm Harold prior to landfall in South Texas Tuesday morning. We still expect only limited rain chances in Southeast Texas.

August 21, 10 a.m.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Matagorda County and will remain in effect through Tuesday. This includes towns like Palacios, Matagorda, and Sargent. Wind gusts are expected to stay below tropical storm force strength, between 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Flash flooding is not expected. Storm surge is also not expected. The biggest concern could be the chance for tornadoes as outlying storms move through the county. Localized heavy rainfall could lead to isolated street flooding.

Potential Tropical Storm Nine is currently forecasted to become a tropical depression by Monday evening, then possibly a tropical storm by Tuesday morning. Landfall of this potential storm is also expected Tuesday morning between Brownsville and Corpus Christi.

August 21, 6 a.m.

A tropical wave located just west of Florida has a 70% chance of developing into a tropical system by Tuesday. But this system, whether it becomes a named storm or not, will be along the Texas coast by Tuesday and could bring heavy rains and gusty winds to portions of Texas. Unfortunately, it looks like Houston and much of southeast Texas will stay on the northern, drier side Monday and Tuesday. A passing shower can't be ruled out either day, but now, Corpus Christi has the best chance of seeing that beneficial rainfall we were hoping for. And to top it off, between the hot weather and drought conditions, there's the possibility for fire danger with this tropical system here as winds pick up Monday and Tuesday. Easterly winds gusting up to 25 mph plus low relative humidity could allow for outdoor burns to become wildfires.

In the rest of the Atlantic, we now have Tropical storms Emily, Franklin and Gert. Another area of interest is off the western coast of Africa.

August 20, 7 p.m.

A tropical wave located just west of Florida has a 70% chance of developing into a tropical system by Tuesday. But this system, whether it becomes a named storm or not, will be along the Texas coast by Tuesday and could bring heavy rains and gusty winds to portions of Texas. Unfortunately it looks like Houston and much of southeast Texas will stay on the northern, drier side Monday and Tuesday. A passing shower cant be ruled out either day, but now Corpus Christi has the best chance of seeing that beneficial rainfall we were hoping for. And to top it off, between the hot weather and drought conditions, there's the possibility for fire danger with this tropical system here as winds pick up Monday and Tuesday. Easterly winds gusting up to 25 mph plus low relative humidity could allow for outdoor burns to become wildfires. Fire Weather Alerts and Burn Bans are in effect for Monday.

In the rest of the Atlantic, we now have Tropical storms Emily and Franklin plus tropical depression six. Another area of interest is off the western coast of Africa.

In the Pacific, Tropical Storm Hilary made landfall in the Baja Peninsula earlier Sunday and is bringing heavy rains and tropical storm force winds to California Sunday night.

August 20, 7 a.m.

A tropical disturbance entering the Gulf of Mexico has a 30% chance of developing over the next 2 days, and a 50% chance of development over the next week. That system, regardless of it's development, is our only legitimate chance for rain in the forecast, but it still looks like the bulk of the moisture will miss the Houston area to the south. The heaviest and most widespread rain will likely fall between Corpus Christi and Brownsville Texas, leaving SE Texas with just a 40% chance for rain. Those who live along the coast will see better rain chances and higher rainfall totals, in particular around Matagorda Bay, while those north of I-10 will see minimal rain at best.

In the Atlantic and Caribbean we're watching one Tropical Depression and three other tropical waves, none of them are expected to have any impact on Texas.

Meanwhile in the eastern Pacific, Hilary is moving towards Southern California, and will bring gusty winds and flooding rains to an area that is unaccustomed to these kinds of storms.

August 19, 6 p.m.

A tropical wave located just west of the Bahamas Saturday evening has a 50% chance of becoming a tropical system over the next 7 days. This is the same system that could bring some rain to southeast Texas. There is currently a 40% chance for showers and storms Tuesday because of that, but several factors could limit how much rain falls here in Houston. The main one being the steering jet stream as well as Saharan dust. Additionally, there are three other areas of potential development in the Atlantic, including Tropical Depression Six which has the potential to become Emily by the end of the weekend.

Elsewhere, we have Hurricane Hilary set to bring flooding rains into Southern California. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for locations unaccustomed to tropical systems, like Los Angeles and San Diego.

August 19, 7 a.m.

A disturbance in the Caribbean is moving west towards the Gulf of Mexico, and the National Hurricane Center has put the odds at 50% that it will develop into a tropical depression or storm. The big question is exactly where the tropical moisture from that system ends up, latest models have it pushing into South Texas, bringing just some low rainfall totals to Southeast Texas, highest along the coast. There still is a good deal of uncertainty on the specifics of our rain, so our current 40% chance on Tuesday could go up or down.

Elsewhere, we have Hurricane Hilary set to bring flooding rains into Southern California. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for locations unaccustomed to tropical systems, like Los Angeles and San Diego.

We're also keeping our eyes on a trio of tropical waves in the open Atlantic which could eventually become named systems, but are not an immediate threat.

August 18, 7 p.m.

The National Hurricane Center just increased the odds to 50% that a tropical disturbance over the Bahamas will develop into a tropical depression or storm before reaching Texas early next week. While the water is very warm and the wind shear is expected to be light, its development will be limited by having only about 2 days over those warm Gulf waters. Regardless of development, the tropical moisture is expected to move ashore with needed rainfall somewhere in Texas around Tuesday of next week. Most computer guidance pushes the deepest moisture over South Texas, which is why we only have a 40% chance of rain in the forecast for Houston. We'll have to wait and see where a circulation center develops next week to determine our exact rain chances and potential amounts. For now, we continue to maintain there's hope for rain while keeping total rainfall expectations low. There is always an element of uncertainty with tropical systems that have not yet formed, and we will monitor things carefully for changes to our current expectations.

August 18, 1 p.m.

A tropical disturbance over the Bahamas now has a 40% chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm before reaching Texas early next week. While the water is very warm and the wind shear is expected to be light, its development will be limited by having only about 2 days over those warm Gulf waters. Regardless of development, the tropical moisture is expected to move ashore with needed rainfall somewhere in Texas around Tuesday of next week. Most computer guidance pushes the deepest moisture over South Texas, which is why we only have a 40% chance of rain in the forecast for Houston. Rain chances and amounts are highly dependent on the track this system takes, so stay tuned for further updates.

August 18, 6 a.m.

The Atlantic is more active now, with four areas to watch that have an opportunity for development over the next week. The most likely candidate for development is in the eastern Atlantic; this has a high(70%) chance of forming by early next week. There is a moderate risk for development of a tropical wave just southwest of that first one, and another wave southwest of that has a low chance. All of these would track to the northwest with no threat to land.

We also have to watch for a low chance of development out of a tropical wave moving into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Conditions are favorable for development, especially with very warm water in place.

In the eastern Pacific, Hurricane Hilary exploded in intensity yesterday afternoon into the overnight, and is now a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds. The storm will diminish in intensity as it nears Baja California over the weekend, but could still be a tropical storm as it nears the Mexico/U.S. border. This storm will bring heavy rainfall and life-threatening flooding to parts of Southern California.

August 17, 6 a.m.

The area of potential development in the Gulf of Mexico remains at 20% through the next 7 days. A tropical wave moving into the Gulf of Mexico Sunday could bring some beneficial rain to southeast Texas in the early and middle parts of next week, though there's still plenty of uncertainty about exactly where the highest moisture (and thus best rain chances) will be. While models are not currently showing any significant strengthening of this potential system, we'll continue to monitor it in case it becomes a bit stronger than models are expecting, especially considering the bath-water warm temps in the Gulf.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin we have two more tropical waves that have rolled off Africa and could become named systems, but neither is likely to have any impact in the Gulf.

August 16, 8 a.m.

The area of potential development in the Gulf of Mexico remains at 20% through the next 7 days. A tropical wave moving into the Gulf of Mexico Sunday could bring some beneficial rain to southeast Texas in the early and middle parts of next week, though there's still plenty of uncertainty about exactly where the highest moisture (and thus best rain chances) will be. While models are not currently showing any significant strengthening of this potential system, we'll continue to monitor it in case it becomes a bit stronger than models are expecting, especially considering the bath-water warm temps in the Gulf.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin we have two more tropical waves that have rolled off Africa and could become named systems, but neither is likely to have any impact in the Gulf.

August 15, 8 p.m.

The NHC has assigned a 20% chance to the Gulf for early next week. A tropical wave will move into the southeastern Gulf on Sunday, then move west towards the western Gulf on Monday. It'll be moving into a somewhat favorable environment for development with extremely warm water and fairly low wind shear in place. More than likely it'll just bring much needed rainfall to parts of the state but we'll need to watch it closely in case it decides to come in stronger.

August 16, 6 a.m.

Two tropical waves to watch in the Atlantic this week. We are monitoring a weak area of low pressure in the far eastern Atlantic late in the week or over the weekend for potential development. Development of this system, if any, would be slow to occur. The NHC now has this as a 30% chance of development in the long range.

August 15, 6 a.m.

We are monitoring a broad area of low pressure off the west coast of Africa that could develop into a tropical depression over the next 7 days. And with several clusters of storms moving off the coast this week, there is a 20% chance one or some of those could develop into a tropical system over the next 7 days. Mind you, those odds are still low and that region is far away from southeast Texas.

August 14, 5 p.m.

It was only a matter of time before hurricane season came back to life. A broad area of low pressure could develop off the west coast of Africa. And with several clusters of storms moving off the coast over the next week, there is a 20% chance one or some of those could develop into a tropical system over the next 7 days. Mind you, those odds are still low and that region is far away from southeast Texas.

And in the eastern Pacific, Fernanda has strengthened to a category 1 hurricane with sustained winds of 75 mph. The other two areas of development will likely become a tropical system over the next two days.

August 13, 7 a.m.

Tropical Storm Fernanda has formed in the Eastern Pacific, and flanking it are two more areas of potential development that could also soon become named storms. Despite the rapid increase in activity through the Pacific, none of the storms will have any impact on us.

Closer to home, the Gulf, Caribbean, and Atlantic all remain quiet, with no development expected over the next 7 days.

August 12, 6 a.m.

The Eastern Pacific is bubbling with activity, as there are now 3 separate areas of potential development to monitor. None of them will have any impact on us in Texas.

The Atlantic still remains quiet, with no activity expected over the next 7 days.

August 11, 6 a.m.

The Gulf and Atlantic remain quiet for now but there are signs we may see more tropical activity within the next two weeks.

And in case you missed it, the National Hurricane Center released their mid-season update to the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook. They are now forecasting an above average season with an expected 14 to 21 named storms, 6 to 11 hurricanes and potentially 2 to 5 major hurricanes (category 3 or greater). This is an increase from their prediction in late-May which was for an average or normal season.

August 10, 10 a.m.

The National Hurricane Center released their mid-season update to the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook. They are now forecasting an above average season with an expected 14 to 21 named storms, 6 to 11 hurricanes and potentially 2 to 5 major hurricanes (category 3 or greater). This is an increase from their prediction in late-May which was for an average or normal season. This increase is a bigger deal this year as it's an El Nino summer, where conditions typically wouldn't be as favorable for an active season. But the reason for the upgrade is what ABC13 Meteorologists have been talking about all summer: the record water sea surface temperatures in the gulf and deep tropics. NOAA forecasts believe these extremely warm water temperatures could counteract the usual unfavorable conditions an El Nino pattern could provide. Slightly below-normal Atlantic trade winds and a near- or above-normal West African Monsoon were also key factors in shaping this updated seasonal forecast.

This seasonal update comes as we approach the peak of hurricane season next month on September 10th. And while plumes of Saharan dust are keeping the deep tropics quiet for now, there are signs that the dust could be limited later this month and allow for more of the tropical waves coming off of Africa to develop.

August 10, 6 a.m.

The Gulf and Atlantic remain quiet for now. Tropical development is not expected during the next 7 days. Meanwhile the Central and Eastern Pacific remains active with several tropical waves that could develop over the next several days. None of them expected to impact the US for now.

August 9, 6 a.m.

The Gulf and Atlantic remain quiet for now, meanwhile the Central and Eastern Pacific remains active. Hurricane Dora is still a Category 4 storm that will pass south of Hawaii. A tropical wave off the coast of Mexico has a medium chance for tropical development during the next 7 days. Neither storm will impact the US.

August 8, 6 a.m.

The Gulf and Atlantic remain quiet for now, meanwhile the Central and Eastern Pacific remains active. Hurricane Dora is still a Category 4 storm that will pass south of Hawaii. A tropical wave off the coast of Mexico has a medium chance for tropical development during the next 7 days. Neither storm will impact the US.

August 7, 6 a.m.

While the Gulf and Atlantic remain quiet, the Central and Eastern Pacific is active with two named storms. Hurricane Dora is a Cat 4 storm that will pass south of Hawaii, while Tropical Storm Eugene will move just southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Neither storm will impact the US.

August 6, 10 a.m.

While the Gulf and Atlantic remain quiet, the Eastern Pacific is active with two named storms. Hurricane Dora is a Cat 4 storm that will pass south of Hawaii, while Tropical Storm Eugene will move just southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Neither storm will impact the US.

August 5, 10 a.m.

In the Eastern Pacific we are monitoring Hurricane Dora and newly formed Tropical Depression Six-E. Neither storm will be any threat to the U.S.

The Atlantic Basin remains quiet for the next 7 days, though a series of tropical waves through the main development region combined with extremely warm water temperatures could yield some bubbling tropical activity later in the month.

August 4, 6 a.m.

While there's no immediate activity in the Atlantic Basin, we are keeping our eyes on a few tropical waves that could potentially develop down the line. There are no threats to Texas over the next week or more.

In the Eastern Pacific things are much more active, with Cat 4 hurricane Dora as well as another disturbance off the coast of Mexico that could become the next named pacific storm. Neither of those storms are any threat to the United States.

August 3, 6 a.m.

Tropical development in the Atlantic has gone quiet for now and the tropical activity in the Eastern Pacific is starting to heat up.

Dora is now a Category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130 mph but is no threat to land. We're also monitoring an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms off the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear favorable for tropical development over the next 7 days. This system is expected to parallel the southwestern coast of Mexico.

August 2, 6 a.m.

There are currently no active tropical systems in the Atlantic, but a tropical wave in the central Atlantic continues to be monitored as it moves to the north-northwest. This system has a very low chance of tropical development as it fights dry air and strong shear. Impacts to Bermuda are unlikely as it passes to the east in the coming days.

August 1, 6 a.m.

We're monitoring two areas of potential tropical development over the Central Atlantic. The first tropical wave has a 50% chance of development over the next 7 days, but will not impact the U.S. The second area of disturbed weather has a low chance of development. This system poses no threat to land.

July 31, 6 a.m.

We're monitoring two areas of potential tropical development over the Central Atlantic. The first tropical wave has a 70% chance of development over the next 48 hours, but will not impact the U.S. The second area of potential development comes from a cold front that pushed off the Eastern seaboard of the U.S., and has a 30% chance of development. This system poses no threat to land.

July 30, 10 a.m.

There are two areas of potential development that we're monitoring in the Atlantic basin currently. The first tropical wave has a 70% chance of development over the next 7 days, but will not impact the US. The second area of potential development comes from a cold front that pushed off the Eastern seaboard of the U.S., but is has just a 20% chance of development and also poses no threat to land.

July 29, 6 a.m.

Our plume of Saharan dust that we've been tracking will stick around through southeast Texas today, though the highest concentrations will likely hold off to our west. Some may notice a bit of haze or a flare up in asthma and allergies.

We also have our eyes on tropical wave that may become our next named storm. Regardless of development, this storm will curve out into the open Atlantic and have no impact on the US.

July 28, 6 a.m.

A large plume of Saharan dust will stick around in southeast Texas through Saturday. Individuals with asthma or allergies may want to minimize their time outdoors. Most of us will just notice a change to the color of the sky, but if you notice any health impacts, you may want to consider reducing your outdoor exposure through the end of the week.

In addition to the Saharan dust, we're monitoring a tropical wave off the coast of Africa that has a medium chance (50%) of development later this week into early next week when it tracks closer to the Lesser Antilles and moves into an area of decreased wind shear in the central Atlantic.

July 27, 6 a.m.

A large plume of Saharan dust will stick around in southeast Texas through Friday. Individuals with asthma or allergies may want to minimize their time outdoors. Most of us will just notice a change to the color of the sky, but if you notice any health impacts, you may want to consider reducing your outdoor exposure through the end of the week.

In addition to the Saharan dust, we're monitoring a tropical wave that has moved off the coast of Africa that has a medium chance (40%) of development later this week into early next week when it tracks closer to the Lesser Antilles and moves into an area of decreased wind shear in the central Atlantic.

July 26, 6 a.m.

A large plume of Saharan dust will stick around in southeast Texas through Friday. Individuals with asthma or allergies may want to minimize their time outdoors. Most of us will just notice a change to the color of the sky, but if you notice any health impacts, you may want to consider reducing your outdoor exposure through the end of the week.

In addition to the Saharan dust, we're monitoring two low pressure centers in the Atlantic basin with low chances for development over the next 7 days.

July 25, 6 a.m.

We are monitoring a large plume of Saharan dust that is moving into the Gulf of Mexico and headed our way this week. The dust will arrive late Tuesday and will stick around in southeast Texas through Friday. Individuals with asthma or allergies may want to minimize their time outdoors.

In addition to the Saharan dust, we're monitoring two low pressure centers in the Atlantic basin with low chances for development over the next 7 days.

July 24, 6 a.m.

We are monitoring a large plume of Saharan dust that is moving into the Gulf of Mexico and headed our way this week. The dust will arrive late Tuesday and will stick around in southeast Texas through Friday. Individuals with asthma or allergies may want to minimize their time outdoors.

We are also keeping an eye on a tropical wave approaching the Caribbean. Development odds are down to just 20% over the next seven days as the storm encounters more shear and Saharan dust.

July 23, 10 a.m.

The main point of interest in the tropics for Texas is the plume of Saharan dust that is moving into the Gulf of Mexico and headed our way this week. The dust will arrive late Tuesday and will stick around in southeast Texas through Friday. Individuals with asthma or allergies may want to minimize their time outdoors.

We are also keeping an eye on a tropical wave approaching the Caribbean. Development odds are down to just 40% over the next seven days as the storm encounters more shear and Saharan dust.

Last but not least, we briefly saw our first hurricane of the 2023 Atlantic season last night, as Don briefly strengthened into a hurricane in the open Atlantic. It's already back down to a Tropical Storm and poses no threat to the U.S.

July 22, 10 a.m.

We're monitoring a tropical wave that is moving toward the Caribbean. The National Hurricane Center now has a 70% chance of development over the next seven days. There's no immediate threat to Texas, but we'll continue to watch this system for any signs that it may head into the Gulf. For now, most models are showing the storm eventually moving into Central America.

We've also got our eyes on some Saharan Dust, which should move into Houston by midweek and stick around through the upcoming work week.

July 21, 1 p.m.

In addition to our plume of Saharan dust expected to impact us next week, we're keeping an eye on a tropical wave in the Atlantic that could develop into our next named storm. Right now, the NHC has development odds at 40% over the next two days and 60% over the next 7 days. There is no immediate threat to Texas, and it's unlikely this wave even makes it into the Gulf. Just a system we're keeping an eye on.

July 21, 6 a.m.

We are tracking a thick plume of Saharan dust that is likely to impact us next week. We are also monitoring a new tropical wave that could develop as it moves toward the Caribbean. Formation odds are low for now at 30% during the next seven days.

July 20, 6 a.m.

We are tracking a thick plume of Saharan dust that is likely to impact us next week. We are also monitoring a new tropical wave that could develop as it moves toward the Caribbean. Formation odds are low for now at 20% during the next 7 days.

July 19, 6 a.m.

We are tracking a thick Saharan dust cloud expected to arrive early next week. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Don in the north-central Atlantic is no threat to land.

Tropical Storm Calvin in the Pacific is expected to approach the Hawaiian Islands Wednesday, bringing some rain, high winds, and rough surf.

July 18, 6 a.m.

We are tracking more Saharan dust arriving next week. A thicker plume is expected to arrive early next week. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Don in the north-central Atlantic is no threat to land.

Tropical Storm Calvin in the Pacific is expected to approach the Hawaiian Islands Tuesday night, bringing some rain, high winds, and rough surf.

July 17, 6 a.m.

We are tracking more Saharan dust arriving this week. Meanwhile, Subtropical Depression Don in the north-central Atlantic is no threat to land.

Tropical Storm Calvin in the Pacific is expected to approach the Hawaiian Islands this week and could eventually bring some rain and high winds.

July 16, 6 a.m.

Tropical Storm Calvin is making its way toward Hawaii and could impact the islands Wednesday and Thursday. The good news is that the storm is weakening as it moves that way.

Closer to home, we're watching a thin layer of Saharan dust that could lead to some haze and asthma flare-ups.

July 15, 6 a.m.

You may notice a bit of haze this weekend in Houston, in particular on Sunday, as a light plume of Saharan dust moves in.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin, we're watching Sub-tropical storm Don, which is weakening and will have no impact on the US. Meanwhile, in the Pacific, Hurricane Calvin could bring some rain and winds to Hawaii by the middle of next week, though it will no longer be hurricane-strength at that point.

July 14, 6 a.m.

A light Saharan haze will fill the sky over Houston Friday, but we'll be monitoring a thicker plume early next week

Meanwhile, Subtropical Storm Don has formed in the Central Atlantic. This system is expected to remain over the Atlantic waters and have no threat to land.

Hurricane Calvin in the Pacific is strengthening. This system is expected to approach the Hawaiian islands early next week. It is too early to specify details regarding impacts to the islands; however, the likelihood of impacts could begin as early as Tuesday into Wednesday of next week. Impacts to the state could include high surf, heavy rain, strong winds, or all of the above.

July 13, 6 a.m.

A small are of low pressure over the central Atlantic remains favorable for tropical development. The NHC gives this system a medium (60%) chance of formation during the next 7 days. This system is not expected to threaten the U.S.

We are also monitoring our first Saharan dust cloud of the season, which looks to bring an initial round of dust to Houston early next week.

July 12, 6 a.m.

A small area of low pressure over the central Atlantic remains favorable for tropical development. The NHC gives this system a medium (50%) chance of formation during the next 7 days.

We are also monitoring our first Saharan dust cloud of the season, which looks to bring an initial round of dust to Houston on Friday, with more of the haze to come next week.

July 11, 6 a.m.

There is a medium (50%) chance for tropical development during the next 7 days in the central Atlantic along a stalled out front that will be in the area. If a tropical system were to form, direct impacts on land are not expected.

In the East Pacific, we are continuing to watch one area off the southern coast of Mexico that has a high risk (90%) of developing over the next few days. If a tropical system develops, it is expected to drift west-northwest into open waters, not impacting the U.S. or Mexico.

July 10, 6 a.m.

The storm complex in the Atlantic that we've been monitoring is now up to a 30% chance of development over the next 7 days. The good news is that the storm is headed east, away from the U.S., and it poses zero threat to us.

July 9, 6 a.m.

Still no ongoing tropical systems in the Atlantic, but we are monitoring one area of potential development in the Atlantic. It has a 20% chance of development over the next 7 days but no chance of impact in the Gulf.

July 8, 6 a.m.

All is quiet throughout the entirety of the Atlantic Basic, with no current storms nor any expected development over the next seven days. We still need to stay vigilant as anomalously warm waters in the main development region as well as in the Gulf, could quickly spin up a storm.

July 6, 6 a.m.

Another surge of tropical moisture will allow for more rounds of scattered showers and storms Thursday, but that's about it in terms of any "tropical" impacts expected over the next few days. Both the Atlantic and Gulf are quiet in terms of any organized tropical systems, with no development expected over the next seven days.

July 5, 6 a.m.

While Houston will play host to some tropical thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday, no organized tropical development is expected over the next seven days. This is mainly thanks to plumes of Saharan dust traversing the Atlantic this week, and no tropical development is expected this week.

July 4, 6 a.m.

With a few plumes of Saharan dust expected to traverse the Atlantic this week, no tropical development is expected this week. Locally though, warm gulf waters and a sea breeze could fuel some showers and storms Tuesday through Thursday.

July 3, 6 a.m.

The Atlantic Basin remains just the way we like it, quiet! We do have some very warm waters that could act as fuel for any storms, but there's nothing in the immediate future that is expected to form. A batch of Saharan Dust is worth watching as it makes its way across the Atlantic, but no major impacts are expected.

July 2, 6 a.m.

In the short term there's nothing brewing in the Gulf, Caribbean, or Atlantic waters. We're watching a batch of Saharan dust moving across the Atlantic, which could reach Houston in about a week's time.

July 1, 6 a.m.

All is quiet across the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Basin in general, with no active storms and no areas of potential development. We are watching two storms in the Eastern Pacific, Adrian, and Beatriz, the latter of which could bring such unsettled weather to the popular vacation destination of Cabo San Lucas in Mexico.

June 30, 6 a.m.

We are continuing to keep an eye on an area of disorganized showers and storms southeast of Bermuda. This area should develop into a broad area of low pressure, but it will be heading into an unfavorable environment for development which is why it only has a low chance of development as it moves north.

June 28, 6 a.m.

We have two areas of disorganized showers and storms in the Atlantic. The first are the remnants of Cindy and are not expected to develop. The second is southeast of Bermuda and has a low chance of development as it moves northward over the next seven days.

June 27, 6 a.m.

Remnants of Cindy are producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms in the southwestern Atlantic. This system has a low probability (30%) of tropical development over the next seven days. It is expected to move generally northward over the western Atlantic, passing near Bermuda on Thursday.

June 26, 6 a.m.

Tropical Storm Cindy has weakened over the Central Atlantic. No other tropical development is expected at this time.

June 25, 6 a.m.

Tropical Storm Bret has faded away, and Tropical Storm Cindy is soon to follow. Neither storms are a threat to the United States.

June 24, 6 a.m.

Tropical Storm Bret is weakening as it moves into higher shear in the eastern Caribbean and will likely be just remnants of a storm by tomorrow. Right on Bret's heels is Tropical Storm Cindy, which currently has max sustained winds of 60mph. Cindy is moving west-northwest and will soon weaken as it curves into the open Atlantic. Neither storm is a threat to Houston and is unlikely to have any direct impact on the US at all.

June 23, 6 a.m.

Tropical Storm Bret has moved into the eastern Caribbean but continues to bring heavy rain and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles. The storm is now entering a region of much higher wind shear. As a result, Bret is expected to lose wind intensity and transition to a tropical depression over the weekend as it tracks through the central Caribbean.

Besides Tropical Storm Bret, Tropical Storm Cindy has formed in the central Atlantic. Most models indicate this storm will begin to move more northwestward over the next day or so and will curve northward and miss the Leeward islands.

June 22, 6 a.m.

Tropical Storm Bret is getting stronger, with maximum sustained winds of 70 mph with higher gusts. A Hurricane Watch is now in effect for St. Lucia, along with Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings for other parts of the Lesser Antilles. Strong winds and heavy rains are expected for portions of the Leeward Islands later today and tonight.

Tropical Depression Four formed in the Central Atlantic. It is moving toward the west near 12 mph with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. On the forecast track, the depression is expected to strengthen and become Cindy. This system is expected to remain east of the northern Leeward Islands through the weekend.

June 21, 6 a.m.

Tropical Storm Bret is getting stronger, with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph with higher gusts. Some additional increase in strength is possible before Bret reaches the Caribbean Sea. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Barbados, Dominica, Martinique, and St. Lucia.

A tropical wave just east of Bret is still disorganized, but conditions appear favorable for further development of this system, and a tropical depression will likely form later this week while the system moves westward. Formation odds have increased to 80% during the next seven days.

June 20, 5 a.m.

Tropical Storm Bret is expected to strengthen as it moves west towards the Lesser Antilles.

Bret is expected to become a hurricane before reaching the Caribbean, and there is only one other hurricane on record to form east of the Caribbean in June. That hurricane occurred in 1933 and went on to become the most active hurricane season on record in the pre-satellite era. Bret is not a threat to Texas at this time.

A tropical wave just east of Bret is still disorganized, but conditions appear favorable for further development of this system, and a tropical depression will likely form later this week while the system moves westward-formation odds up to 70% during the next seven days.

June 19, 3:45 p.m.

It's official: Tropical Storm Bret has formed in the deep tropics well east of the Caribbean. It is highly unusual for a storm to form this far out in the Atlantic at this time of year because, normally the waters are still too cool to support development. This year it's a different story, with water already as warm as it typically is the first week of September!

Bret is expected to become a hurricane before reaching the Caribbean, and there is only one other hurricane on record to form east of the Caribbean in June. That hurricane occurred in 1933 and went on to become the most active hurricane season on record in the pre-satellite era.

Bret is not a threat to Texas at this time.

June 19, 10:30 a.m.

As of 10 a.m., we now have Tropical Depression Three, a tropical system that could become named Storm Bret by the end of the day Monday. This depression is currently located near the Lesser Antilles and is expected to strengthen throughout the day Monday, potentially becoming Tropical Storm Bret by the end of the day. The current extended forecast track has this system approaching the eastern Caribbean by week's end, though echoing that this track is still highly variable. No threat to Houston as of now.

Aside from this system, there is another wave behind Three which we do not expect any development in the near term. The wave has a 30& chance of development over the next 48 hours 40% chance over the next seven days.

June 19

There are a couple of tropical waves that we are monitoring. A fairly robust wave continues to organize a few hundred miles east of the Windward Islands. This wave has a 90% chance of development over the next couple of days. A tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form as this system moves to the west between 15 to 20 mph. No forecast models currently bring the storm into the Gulf, so it is not a concern to Texans.

Aside from this system, there is another wave behind the previous one, which we do not expect any development in in the near term.

June 18, 11 a.m. update

The tropical wave we've been watching in the eastern Atlantic is now up to a 90% chance of development over the next seven days. This will likely become Tropical Storm Bret in the coming days. No forecast models currently bring the storm into the Gulf, so it is not a concern to Texans, just a storm we'll be monitoring.

June 17, 11 a.m. update

We're still watching a tropical wave off the coast of Africa that has now been tagged by the National Hurricane Center as "invest 92-L", which is just a potential system that they will begin forecasting for. The storm is up to an 80% chance of development in the next seven days, though it is extremely unlikely to have any impact here in Texas.

June 16, 7 p.m. update

The tropical wave off the coast of Africa now has a high (70%) chance of development over the next seven days. While we expect zero impacts here in Texas, its development may signal a more active season ahead than originally predicted by seasonal hurricane forecasters.

June 16

We're monitoring a tropical wave off the coast of Africa that is now up to a 50% chance of development over the next 7 days. This potential storm is not at all cause for concern for Houston-area readers, as it's still very far out. It's just a typical wave that bears watching in the coming days, something we'll do many times over with many similar waves as we progress through hurricane season.

June 15

Nothing is threatening to develop at this time, but we are seeing some Saharan dust in the eastern Atlantic. This dust is not expected to move into southeast Texas.

June 14

Nothing is threatening to develop at this time, but sea surface temperatures are rapidly rising and considerably warmer than average for this time of year.

June 13

Despite warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures across the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Basin, the tropics remain quiet for now. There is no tropical development expected in the next seven days.

June 12

Quiet conditions remain across the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Basin. There is no tropical development expected in the next seven days.

June 11

Despite warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures across the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Basin, we remain storm-free. There is no tropical development expected in the next seven days.

June 10

El Nino has officially arrived! An El Nino is typically identified by warmer than average waters in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific and tends to create higher wind shear during hurricane season, which in turn can help to limit tropical development. That being said, our sea surface temperatures remain extremely high, and an average hurricane season is expected. There is no tropical development expected in the next 7 days.

June 9

The Atlantic Basin is quiet, and no tropical development is expected through the next seven days.

June 8

The swirl of low pressure near the Azores no longer looks favorable for development. The Atlantic Basin is quiet, and no development is expected to occur during the next seven days.

June 7

The showers and thunderstorms located near the eastern Azores remain disorganized for now. The National Hurricane Center gives this system a 10 percent chance for development during the next seven days. This system could acquire some subtropical characteristics while it drifts to the east of the Azores.

June 6

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring an area of disturbed weather located between the Azores and Canary Islands. At this point, showers and thunderstorms are disorganized and the NHC is giving this system a 10% chance for development during the next seven days. This system could acquire some subtropical characteristics while it drifts to the southeast and east of the Azores.

June 5

There are no organized systems in the Atlantic Basin for now. What is left of Arlene will continue to shift east of the Bahamas today. Tropical development is not expected during the next seven days.

June 3, 4 p.m. update

Arlene was downgraded to a post-tropical cyclone Saturday evening as the system approached Cuba. The 4 p.m. CT update will likely be the last one specifically for Arlene.

June 3, 11 a.m. update

Tropical Storm Arlene is now down to "Tropical Depression Arlene" after encountering the expected high shear and dry air, which has eroded the storm. No further strengthening is expected as Arlene moves north of Cuba.

June 3, 5 a.m. update

Tropical Storm Arlene continues to spin in the eastern Atlantic. The storm is moving southeast at 9 mph on its journey toward Cuba, but as it enters a higher-shear environment, it is expected to weaken. Arlene will likely be back down to a tropical depression later today-no impacts for Texas.

June 2, 12:40 p.m. update

Tropical Depression 2 is now Tropical Storm Arlene. Hurricane Hunters found strong enough winds to barely clear the threshold for a named storm. Nothing has changed regarding the forecast from our previous update.

June 2, 4 a.m. update

Tropical Depression 2 remains a weak and highly sheared system in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. TD2 has maximum sustained winds of 35 mph and is drifting south at 5mph into an environment with even more wind shear. That shear will keep this system from strengthening significantly, and while it may briefly become Tropical Storm Arlene, it looks more likely to stay a tropical depression before falling apart this weekend. There's no threat to Texas, but some parts of Florida could see a few inches of rain as the system weakens and drifts south.

June 1, 4 p.m. update

Tropical Depression 2 is expected to become Tropical Storm Arlene briefly. The steering currents will push it south, where a combo of dry air and high wind shear will tear it apart on its way to Cuba this weekend.

June 1, 3:30 p.m. update

Well, that didn't take long. On the first day of hurricane season, we have a newly formed tropical depression over the Gulf near Florida. The first forecast from the National Hurricane Center will come out by 4 p.m., but the steering currents should keep it far away from Texas.

June 1, 7:45 a.m. update

We are watching an area of low pressure in the eastern Gulf. Showers and storms associated with this low have shown some better organization over the past 12 hours. The National Hurricane Center has given this system a 50% chance of development in the next two days. Regardless of development, this system should continue to bring on and off heavy rain to the Florida Peninsula. There is no threat to Texas with this system.

The federal agency announced its forecast of 12 to 17 named storms, five to nine becoming hurricanes and one to four powering into major hurricanes with winds greater than 110 mph. Normal is 14 named storms, with seven becoming hurricanes and three of them major hurricanes. NOAA has given us a 40% chance of having a near-normal season.

Hurricane season officially begins June 1 (although storms have been known to form before the start of the season).

RADAR MAPS:

Southeast Texas

Houston

Harris County

Galveston County

Montgomery/Walker/San Jacinto/Polk/Grimes Counties

Fort Bend/Wharton/Colorado Counties

Brazoria/Matagorda Counties

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